Data Collected by the Mortgage Brokers Association for Responsible Lending
- A recent sample of 100 stated income loans which were compared to IRS records (which is allowed through IRS forms 4506, but hardly done) found that 90% of the income was exaggerated by 5% or more. MORE DISTURBINGLY, ALMOST 60% OF THE STATED AMOUNTS WERE EXAGGERATED BY MORE THAN 50%. These results suggest that the stated income loans deserves the nickname used by many in the industry, the “liar’s loan.”i
- 37.2% of non-agency mortgage backed securities were no document loans in 2005.ii
- 49.3% of ARMS with interest only features originated in 2004 lacked full documentation.iii
- As of September 2005, Adjustable rate Mortgages (ARMs) accounted for roughly 70% of the prime mortgage products originated and securitized and 80% of the subprime sector.iv
- In 2006 97.5% of borrowers are likely to face a payment shock of at least 25% and 75% of borrowers could face a shock of 50% or more.v These changes neglect additional shocks that would result from the repayment of principal because of current interest only payments!
- Payments will increase on 41% of the outstanding subprime loans in 2006 alone.v
- As of March 22, 2006 53.1% of interest only ARMS had a prepayment penalty.vi
- 70% of borrowers with Option ARMs (Arms that allow negative amortization) are currently making minimum payments.vii
- In 2004 $600 BILLION of consumers' spending power was from borrowing against home values. That is double the value of President Bush's tax cuts, as estimated by Brooking Institution scholar Peter Orzag.viii
- 2nd homes accounted for 14% of new mortgages in 2004; in 2000 it was only 7%. Mr. Greenspan said that the fact that someone can sell a 2nd home without moving, "suggests that speculative activity may have had a greater role in generating the recent increases than it customarily has had in the past."viii
- Residential housing now makes up 16 percent, or $1.9 trillion, of the gross domestic product and is the economy's largest single sector, slightly bigger than the industries and services that supply health care.ix
- In 2005 the FBI convicted only 170 people nationally for mortgage fraud. In 2004 that number was 172 people. According to the FBI the hot spots for Mortgage Fraud activity in 2004 (per capita) were: California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Maryland, Georgia, and Florida.x
- In the San Francisco Bay Area alone, almost 75% of mortgage loans taken out last year (2005) allowed borrowers to delay the payment of principle. Negatively amortized loans jumped to 29% of the Bay Area mortgage market from less than 10% in 2004.xi
- The following chart shows the percentage of Bay Area loans that were interest only or Option ARMs (know
as negative amortization).xi
Year Interest Only Option Arm 2005 42.6% 29.1% 2004 43.7% 9.6% 2003 20.3% 0.8% 2002 12.0% 1.7% 2001 2.9% 1.6%
i http://www.mari-inc.com/pdfs/mba/MBA8thCaseRpt.pdf, page 15 of adobe document, July 17th, 2006.
ii What else is new? ARMs Dominate Subprime Mix, INSIDE B&C LENDING (Bethesda, MD), Jan. 20, 2006.
iii Observed by The Center for Responsible Lending.
iv 2006 Global Structured Finance Outlook: Economic and Sector-by-Sector Analysis, FITICH RATINGS CREDIT POLICY (New York, N.Y), Jan. 17, 2006 at 12.
vhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/SECRS/2006/May/20060516/OP-1246/OP-1246_37_1.pdf, page 10, June 15th, 2006.
vi Study through The Center for Responsible Lending (CRL), which analyzed Loan performance data on March 22, 2006
vii Ruth Simon, A trendy mortgage falls from favor - Demand for option ARMs, which helped fuel boom, wanes amid rising rates, growing risk, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, November 29, 2005, at D1.
viii Greg Ip, Greenspan warns of reliance on housing loans, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, September 27, 2005, at A1.
ix David Leonhardt, Boom in Jobs, Not Just Houses, as Real Estate Drives Economy, THE NEW YORK TIMES, July 9, 2005
x http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel05/quickflip121405.htm, June 26th, 2006.
xi Kathleen Pender, Mortgage options explode, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, April 13, 2006